TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,195

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,579 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Toronto Blue Jays42c45,993$19,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,675.831,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals58c14,890$8,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,636.182,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed St. Louis Cardinals58c14,780$8,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,586.23,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals48c6,922$3,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,297.911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed St. Louis Cardinals58c4,347$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.2620845.2%94 W · 114 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays47c4,126$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.414,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked St. Louis Cardinals58c3,905$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.352,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals55c3,477$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.474,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked St. Louis Cardinals58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74045748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals58c1,749$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.426,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals58c1,434$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.692,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Toronto Blue Jays40c1,210$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72671650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked St. Louis Cardinals60c1,024$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.42,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals58c992.78$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.131,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals59c825$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.758,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed St. Louis Cardinals58c780$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.41,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays46c774.62$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.1212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked Toronto Blue Jays41c732$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.888145.7%37 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays57c694.63$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.148,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays52c665.55$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.1710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Toronto Blue Jays41c590.25$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2539953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Toronto Blue Jays41c590.25$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2538551.4%198 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed St. Louis Cardinals58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2904139%16 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto Blue Jays40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30082636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2955,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed St. Louis Cardinals55c499.96$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.989048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals59c399$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.411,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Toronto Blue Jays57c354.39$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.393231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays54c322.53$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.519,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Toronto Blue Jays42c282.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3921343.2%92 W · 121 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…238bbacked Toronto Blue Jays44c254.55$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.551050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d6…513fbacked St. Louis Cardinals58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf3…50a8backed Toronto Blue Jays41c232.55$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.24231%13 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a41…f527backed Toronto Blue Jays41c232.55$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.24131.7%13 W · 28 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Toronto Blue Jays45c221.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.16953.6%37 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Toronto Blue Jays57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8631844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals59c171.2$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.014,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed St. Louis Cardinals57c165.15$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4248851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7414…8c11backed St. Louis Cardinals31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd577…c012backed Toronto Blue Jays41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9514645.9%67 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays43c120$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.456440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Toronto Blue Jays41c116.28$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6115147.7%72 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7218…ea41backed Toronto Blue Jays41c116.27$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.64332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd770…209dbacked St. Louis Cardinals53c115.84$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.615248%73 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4403…4752backed Toronto Blue Jays48c110.01$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.08580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked St. Louis Cardinals56c106.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023357.5%134 W · 99 L+22.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed19…b6ffbacked Toronto Blue Jays42c104$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.663775.7%28 W · 9 L+9.4wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+67.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed St. Louis Cardinals48c97.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4855448.2%267 W · 287 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf04b…049abacked Toronto Blue Jays41c93.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.884129.3%12 W · 29 L-6.4wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Toronto Blue Jays40c89.83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays47c81.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.778,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed St. Louis Cardinals56c70.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9953655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Toronto Blue Jays60c69.38$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7538053.2%202 W · 178 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8977…6579backed St. Louis Cardinals60c68.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…44c3backed St. Louis Cardinals58c67.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.161637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed St. Louis Cardinals60c64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.435650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba2c…fddabacked St. Louis Cardinals59c64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.762532%8 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Toronto Blue Jays41c59.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8316355.8%91 W · 72 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked St. Louis Cardinals31c57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed St. Louis Cardinals56c53.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked St. Louis Cardinals58c52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.171,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed St. Louis Cardinals58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked St. Louis Cardinals41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5579955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc972…98b6backed Toronto Blue Jays41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.78944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x947d…dff0backed Toronto Blue Jays41c47.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.093933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa71d…9854backed Toronto Blue Jays41c46.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.444531.1%14 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd6…cfdebacked Toronto Blue Jays41c46.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.444332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Toronto Blue Jays45c35.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8452750.1%264 W · 263 L+19.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed St. Louis Cardinals58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.478854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd8…f00bbacked Toronto Blue Jays40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays57c24.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.322,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed St. Louis Cardinals48c23.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.313151.1%67 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays55c21.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Toronto Blue Jays55c21.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.740048.5%194 W · 206 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90f…a908backed St. Louis Cardinals58c18.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.629755.7%54 W · 43 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked Toronto Blue Jays67c17.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.97869.2%54 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.