MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x690c3cc8a8291b1c850a504cc7221635b5a88c035a7e53eefd8d46a52e2b49aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 32,948$17,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,091.8 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 14,842$8,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,037.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 9,919$4,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,237.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 49c | 7,875$3,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,016 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 3,672$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.38 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 46c | 3,621$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.63 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 58c | 2,433$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.91 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 2,346$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.68 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 1,946$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 56c | 1,761$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.96 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,373$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,302$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 943$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.62 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 66c | 661.85$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.1 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 607.51$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 55c | 585$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 573.1$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.94 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 45c | 550.55$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.8 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 51c | 520.84$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.21 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 69c | 499.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 470.03$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.21 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 399$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Over | 56c | 348.21$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 44c | 339.7$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.23 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 319.98$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 42c | 274.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.4 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 65c | 232.24$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 45c | 222.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 43c | 214.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.34 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 42c | 210.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 45c | 200.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Over | 58c | 172.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 45c | 166.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 153.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 44c | 142$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 64c | 120.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 66c | 94.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 28c | 82.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 77.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 75c | 75.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 55c | 75.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 45c | 75.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 72c | 71.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 41c | 63.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 45c | 63.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 63.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 70c | 62.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 38c | 56.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 75c | 50.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 50.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 75c | 50.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 66c | 47.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Over | 44c | 43.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 56c | 36.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 60c | 34.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 43c | 34.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…e4d0backed Over | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 56c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 69c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 69c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.