TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,162 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes35c538.36$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.957416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c320.58$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No66c303$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.022,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No45c258.76$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes60c244.74$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6825037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c165.28$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.82,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No71c163.79$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c154.91$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.551,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes61c144.22$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6133058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c141.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes36c124.66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4739535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes38c115.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.585,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No48c106.79$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6928839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c102.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes23c101.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6851321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No44c99.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5644448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes55c98.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7113554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes27c96.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4712317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes52c96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9218052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No77c94.84$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5315155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes26c92.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.282,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes26c91.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.641,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c88.36$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes22c87.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No74c84.96$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No62c80.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8483360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes60c80.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.985543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes38c76.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4917138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff9b…6a02backed Yes24c75.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4915834.2%54 W · 104 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c73.89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.744,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4204…4637backed Yes28c73.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No36c68.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7118041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No74c67.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ba…5f37backed Yes41c67.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.541040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No78c67.71$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1514168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes35c66.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No74c66.28$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1316575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes25c64.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.911,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c62.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.539,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed Yes24c60.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.777266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes54c58.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5937644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes35c58.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2814829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No39c57.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.652,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes48c57.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5930131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes50c57.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5457659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes24c56.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.419235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No78c56.62$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6357038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes41c56.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.114926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec4d…087ebacked Yes26c55.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.362733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No75c53.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4152571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes23c52.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.092548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes40c51.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4242544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x440c…8dccbacked Yes29c50.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.799635.4%34 W · 62 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes23c50.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6225042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2519430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed Yes27c48.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.056827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed No50c47.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.94535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed Yes45c47.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.162638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No74c46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8422675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No61c44.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4134057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No38c43.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.492,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No76c40.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6226566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No58c39.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked No76c39.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2133243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes59c37.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2319123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No76c36.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7618272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c24…81e9backed No45c35.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.731770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes44c34.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2d…f86dbacked Yes56c34.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.11862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No70c33.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1940777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes50c33.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.74731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes42c33.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No62c30.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4644147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No80c30.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1621676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes41c30.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3528648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3543…c63fbacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc491…8012backed Yes38c29.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2650%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8288…4c83backed Yes64c28.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.514535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No56c27.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8920942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed Yes54c26.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1255855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes42c25.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6211249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No62c24.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc8…6055backed No43c23.18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No75c22.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6314671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba96…7080backed No67c22.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5812560.8%76 W · 49 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7327…64f4backed No69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.745427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No61c21.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No70c21.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4132669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No72c20.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.717376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c20.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.119,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1f…5154backed Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a96…b81abacked No65c19.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.936949.3%34 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No53c19.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1599961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked No63c18.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.996946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No77c17.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.999176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No59c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9715937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.