TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3ce0…59d5backed No0c37,517$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes74c320.24$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.525,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No58c248.42$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2224149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c229.94$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes41c227.27$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.277,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c176.55$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.761,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe418…f304backed Yes66c170.94$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.562152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No60c160.57$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9816046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No59c158.37$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.071,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No18c156.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.022,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c149.18$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No58c148.59$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.492,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes40c118.35$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.367416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes43c115.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1118052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e84…659dbacked No74c114.14$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.763473.5%25 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked No61c103.77$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1114834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c99.9$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes41c96.92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5428119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes41c92.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8445619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes35c91.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.233,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c91.55$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.678,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ba…5f37backed Yes42c84.82$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.811040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes57c76.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0986420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes39c76.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6939535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes80c69.05$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9418164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes36c67.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.564731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes49c66.27$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.941,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes30c66.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.175543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59c8…0247backed No59c64.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.482568%17 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.564,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402a…bf33backed No27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.925046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes38c59.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes37c59.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5123738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes44c58.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes48c58.51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-47.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb869…a2acbacked No60c55.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.611662.5%10 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x440c…8dccbacked Yes49c54.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.019635.4%34 W · 62 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes40c53.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.231,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes29c53.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.929741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes49c52.76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.892548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes40c52.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2825042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c52.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.983,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…54c9backed No59c51.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.28356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes45c49.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.542544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes39c49.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2910258.8%60 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes33c47.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8419123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes38c45.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1525839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No70c44.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0457038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed Yes46c43.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.664535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes45c41.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0320750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes30c41.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.381,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No64c40.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7727464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes39c40.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.665043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.818327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes40c39.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6857659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes37c37.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.492028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes28c36.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.161929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes45c35.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4156131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2083360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3011…add7backed No57c32.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.371435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes44c31.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.752250%11 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+56%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a23…184abacked No51c31.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.061070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes42c29.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.066959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c29.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.592,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e3…0ed9backed Yes42c28.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.581435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No52c28.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.868746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes40c28.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.871,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed No67c27.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4533154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes77c27.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.261,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes39c27.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.524835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe45…fd22backed No68c27.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.434955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c26.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.169,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcafd…b861backed No62c26.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.467272.2%52 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes39c26.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0433243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce05…7852backed Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.643348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe25a…31c4backed Yes42c24.68$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.314757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0af…e734backed No60c24.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x796a…e815backed Yes46c24.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.965147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc243…1f1abacked Yes42c23.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.92425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No62c23.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.434070%28 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No54c23.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.617266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9bc…e46bbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No55c18.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No61c17.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5519058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes79c14.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.