Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10a6d07332ead99be1db332d1da41fc3c97d778b431f3a9c3c3a8351b16d7d12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 17c | 907.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.02 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked No | 10c | 630.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 43c | 580.33$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.95 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 64c | 530$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 73c | 494.79$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 472.9$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 50c | 370.63$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.54 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 363.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 30c | 336$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 71c | 298.33$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 22c | 292.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 171$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 122.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 26c | 96.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 20c | 71.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 55c | 66.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 31c | 65.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 63.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 29c | 61.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 57.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked No | 65c | 44.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 44.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 24c | 43.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 40.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…6c34backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 35.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 64c | 34.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…26d9backed Yes | 39c | 33.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 32.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 68c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 37c | 28.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 27.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…b2f5backed No | 71c | 25.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 48c | 23.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 22.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 65c | 20.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.