Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10ec14728e26d0c24de124794dcee75a5e3700c93da55c64a661b1998377d8bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 1,067$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.7 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 1,061$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 882.81$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.41 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 25c | 714.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.38 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 635.42$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.77 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 65c | 503.68$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.86 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 494.51$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 76c | 431.52$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 22c | 406.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 353$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 261.3$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 162.96$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 19c | 156$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 18c | 147.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 136.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 67c | 116.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 115.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 113.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 112.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 106.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 31c | 104.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 76c | 102$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 24c | 99.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 97.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 54c | 88.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 87.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 27c | 80.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 75.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 69c | 68.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 69c | 68.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 65.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 31c | 63.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 28c | 62.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…c5ddbacked Yes | 28c | 57.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 21c | 57.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 56.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 38c | 53.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 26c | 52.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 48.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 29c | 47.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked No | 63c | 46.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 69c | 40.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 38.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 37.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 68c | 37.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 35.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 74c | 35.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 68c | 34.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 29.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 74c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 66c | 25.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 48c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 17.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 76c | 16.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.