NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1171ad8316f36ce1ef3026323f8622caf7b9f0776886285fa6e3c7f345cdcd7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Bucks | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,399.96 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Spurs | 52c | 29,801$15,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,304.68 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…50b7backed Spurs | 53c | 590.47$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.52 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Bucks | 47c | 444.88$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.85 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…b3c4backed Bucks | 47c | 425$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 49c | 416.9$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Spurs | 53c | 374.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.65 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Bucks | 47c | 303.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Bucks | 42c | 218.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Spurs | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 140 | 59.3%83 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Spurs | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Bucks | 9c | 147.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Spurs | 53c | 132.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Spurs | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…bd20backed Spurs | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Spurs | 52c | 86.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Spurs | 51c | 79.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5e…1a04backed Bucks | 49c | 79.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Spurs | 53c | 63.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Bucks | 47c | 55.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 46c | 53.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Spurs | 52c | 48.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Bucks | 47c | 47.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69d…b643backed Spurs | 57c | 34.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…b096backed Spurs | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…dfadbacked Spurs | 67c | 29.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…20e6backed Bucks | 43c | 23.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…86debacked Spurs | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spurs | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ousmane Dieng: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-18.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-19.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. BucksSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.