Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x118edc427ad9212196579238648d0c2ded05337e3cff852289d1e701a33905b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 14c | 2,004$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.97 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,220$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 22c | 699.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 667.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 508.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 462.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 11c | 405.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 399.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 79c | 340.28$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…6ddfbacked Yes | 16c | 305.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 20c | 301.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 255.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes | 24c | 249.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 238.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 7c | 232$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 229.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 14c | 221.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 16c | 212.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 199.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 13c | 193.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 185.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 176.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 169.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 154.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 17c | 149.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 145.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 16c | 144$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed Yes | 15c | 135.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 128.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 120.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fe…16e4backed No | 75c | 114.93$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 111.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 76c | 103.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 22c | 101.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 24c | 99.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 31c | 98.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes | 22c | 95.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 93.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…452fbacked Yes | 16c | 90.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 16c | 85.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 24c | 82.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 16c | 76.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 74.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 61.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 60.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 24c | 60.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 78c | 30.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 80c | 29.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…08c5backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 80c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 78c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.