Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a01c3f8874432bc38873ead2e09aaa56d7960b0d5c6a2877af8041c3dfc65dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 1c | 1,451$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 53c | 1,032$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.28 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 76c | 981.38$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.31 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 62c | 841.6$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.61 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 19c | 653.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 21c | 620.69$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 565$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 557.4$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 61c | 390.96$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 61c | 300.09$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.67 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 63c | 255$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 28c | 239.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 40c | 233.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 31c | 225.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 72c | 221.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 42c | 214.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 211.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 40c | 209$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 55c | 205$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 201$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 36c | 199$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…e50bbacked Yes | 50c | 198.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 50c | 195.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 29c | 175.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 8c | 169.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 27c | 162.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 46c | 158.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 67c | 157.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…8533backed No | 39c | 152.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 151.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes | 70c | 148.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 36c | 137.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 21c | 137.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 69c | 136.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 80c | 133.18$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 118.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 114.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 111.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 64c | 105.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 104.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 104.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 102.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 63c | 102.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…7870backed No | 21c | 96.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 96.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed Yes | 62c | 95.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 92.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 40c | 90.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 39c | 90.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 42c | 89.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 30c | 87.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 85.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 43c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 83.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 29c | 83.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 69c | 81.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 20c | 80.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 66c | 77.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 24c | 76.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 40c | 73.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 71.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 68.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked No | 46c | 67.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed No | 24c | 67.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…4d6abacked Yes | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed No | 21c | 63.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 69c | 62.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 41c | 60.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 55c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…608dbacked No | 59c | 58.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…7ab4backed Yes | 59c | 56.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 55.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 40c | 53.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 23c | 52.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 49.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 48.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 59c | 48.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 70c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 38c | 45.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 56c | 43.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 28c | 42.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d0…1845backed No | 49c | 41.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.