Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97878d1236fba4fee74ad5375e246a5eb344c1a4a528f274da3a9d8ab7e777cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 1c | 1,291$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 1,041$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 27c | 873.2$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.43 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 14c | 765.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 12c | 738.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 520$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 20c | 416.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 406.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 401.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 77c | 300.09$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 293.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 257.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 252.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…368ebacked No | 80c | 228.67$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 18c | 209.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 187.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 177.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 18c | 175$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 30c | 139.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 18c | 129.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 124.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 20c | 120.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 114.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 77c | 113.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 24c | 109.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 106$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 103.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 27c | 103.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…a144backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 98.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 92.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 75c | 90.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 17c | 85.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 69c | 83.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 69c | 83.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…4c2bbacked No | 69c | 82.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 80.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 22c | 74.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 24c | 62.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d0…1845backed No | 77c | 61.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 78c | 54.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 52.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 50.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 27c | 50.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 50.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 49.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 30c | 47.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 77c | 43.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…08c5backed No | 78c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…3ac2backed No | 79c | 37.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 34.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 34.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 31.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 71c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 29.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 74c | 26.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.