Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11946b768b39e68496af627279da607d63ab47307cd33c1980f8e0881cf073c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 1,321$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 142.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 140.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 134.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 27c | 132.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 131.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 74c | 109.73$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 50c | 103.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 92.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 76c | 90.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 29c | 88.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 71.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 71c | 69.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 56.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…c577backed Yes | 28c | 49.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 49.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 48.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 49c | 44.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 37c | 40.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…89b6backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…3963backed Yes | 30c | 39.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 33.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…a171backed Yes | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 79c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 69c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked Yes | 70c | 14.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.