Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb62451a6c4c7749c73b6d03f55e7cfbb2ac0ed39833da103ec7fcf1eee5140bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,876$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.43 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,212$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 534.54$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 518.29$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.77 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 294.47$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 59c | 267$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.47 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 62c | 237.16$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 226.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 214$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 175.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 159.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 62c | 149.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 60c | 141.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 140$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 130.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 130.57$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 102.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 30c | 98.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 84.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 62c | 77.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 34c | 73.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 68.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 42c | 67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 63.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…c577backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 57.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 48.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 40.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed No | 56c | 40.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 36.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 74c | 35.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 35.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 57c | 33.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 29.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 28.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 43c | 28.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked No | 56c | 25.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 60c | 18.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.