Fifa International · resolved market
Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a18ba621697cb743407ee6bc22dee0b8ead2fa4b05e3eb0f6655800755df04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 10,357$6,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,431.83 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…8107backed Over | 68c | 4,420$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…da2fbacked Over | 13c | 2,182$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +284.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cf…42eabacked Over | 42c | 2,147$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.07 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Under | 1c | 1,962$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Over | 39c | 1,948$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.98 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 42c | 1,800$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7909…e8febacked Over | 38c | 1,700$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 1,600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Over | 38c | 1,292$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.91 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +11.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 74c | 1,119$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.05 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 1,032$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.05 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…785ebacked Under | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Over | 57c | 821.38$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.06 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…84c5backed Over | 60c | 779.89$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 66c | 762.19$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.84 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 527.82$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.66 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 12c | 511.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.43 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 6c | 404.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.38 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…c66dbacked Over | 48c | 389.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 11c | 369.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.8 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 43c | 341.89$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…a517backed Over | 14c | 332.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +617.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 56c | 294.45$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.89 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 69c | 284.01$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.47 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 34c | 279.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.85 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 11c | 268.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.84 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 38c | 232.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Under | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…ba17backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…e39ebacked Over | 65c | 199.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Over | 50c | 197.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Over | 62c | 191.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Over | 13c | 185.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.19 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 159.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 68c | 158.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Over | 66c | 154.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Over | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbd…191dbacked Over | 42c | 143.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 69c | 142.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 44c | 133.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Over | 52c | 131.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 156 | 46.2%72 W · 84 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed Over | 41c | 126.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 63c | 111.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 22c | 102.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Under | 62c | 102.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Over | 13c | 94.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 169 | 25.4%43 W · 126 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 41c | 94.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 403 | 55.3%223 W · 180 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 11c | 91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 44c | 85.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 158 | 59.5%94 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 75.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa695…c8a4backed Under | 80c | 74.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cc…2e39backed Over | 69c | 68.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec5…6093backed Over | 40c | 67.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…b8acbacked Over | 53c | 63.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 107 | 62.6%67 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Under | 60c | 53.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 41c | 48.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 40c | 48.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 44c | 45.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 44c | 41.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 60c | 40.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…6940backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 37c | 34.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 285 | 45.3%129 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…24aebacked Over | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Over | 67c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 63c | 20.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Under | 62c | 19.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 4.5this page
- Sweden vs. Poland: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.