TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

California Baptist Lancers vs. Tarleton State Texans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tarleton State Texansof California Baptist Lancers, Tarleton State Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,987

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,665 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed California Baptist Lancers27c2,378$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.972,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Tarleton State Texans38c1,283$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.732,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Tarleton State Texans55c1,125$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.255354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked California Baptist Lancers48c1,064$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.625043.2%108 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Tarleton State Texans58c1,043$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.753,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Tarleton State Texans54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked California Baptist Lancers34c908.07$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.981,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Tarleton State Texans52c763.08$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.281,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked California Baptist Lancers49c498.6$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.714,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed California Baptist Lancers32c430.09$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.643,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked California Baptist Lancers43c421.02$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed California Baptist Lancers60c344.67$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8212354.5%67 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Tarleton State Texans51c343.65$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.641,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Tarleton State Texans33c291.12$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.4942327.2%115 W · 308 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14dc…ffa1backed California Baptist Lancers19c280.26$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed California Baptist Lancers4c266.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651048.7%9 W · 95 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a63…b752backed California Baptist Lancers36c215$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.453638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked California Baptist Lancers10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201608.1%13 W · 147 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf702…7cc8backed Tarleton State Texans76c184$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4617544%77 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa241…c62bbacked Tarleton State Texans55c181.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Tarleton State Texans61c169.85$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.342,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed California Baptist Lancers44c165.55$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.855,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Tarleton State Texans36c158$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1219050.5%96 W · 94 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Tarleton State Texans42c156.03$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.264,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Tarleton State Texans31c141$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.571,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Tarleton State Texans78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.219871.4%70 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…e2c7backed California Baptist Lancers80c110.57$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Tarleton State Texans55c108$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.65750.9%29 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd28b…f0ebbacked California Baptist Lancers29c99.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed California Baptist Lancers45c93.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.092,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked California Baptist Lancers36c87.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.434649.1%170 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed California Baptist Lancers49c83.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1353646.5%249 W · 287 L-24.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked California Baptist Lancers49c75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.381,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tarleton State Texans55c73.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.935,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed California Baptist Lancers47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.022,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked California Baptist Lancers48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513247%62 W · 70 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked California Baptist Lancers37c51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9261446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed California Baptist Lancers45c46.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.041,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd5…7236backed Tarleton State Texans68c46.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.91666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Tarleton State Texans43c46.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.271,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed California Baptist Lancers46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021746.1%100 W · 117 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Tarleton State Texans58c35.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0611850%59 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed California Baptist Lancers44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed California Baptist Lancers74c25.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.74825%2 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-60.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Tarleton State Texans49c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.752,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Tarleton State Texans56c24.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9749043.1%211 W · 279 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Tarleton State Texans54c21.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.673,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Tarleton State Texans55c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Tarleton State Texans55c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4511743.6%51 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4c2…2c26backed California Baptist Lancers68c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.