CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11eefe57227ad18fc9148c223fa9cb723a864d387cfdbf34864653df9f5ac474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Over | 51c | 332.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 302 | 36.8%111 W · 191 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Under | 49c | 272.45$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Over | 47c | 152.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 374 | 53.2%199 W · 175 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Under | 71c | 152.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 87 | 58.6%51 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 145.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Over | 26c | 126.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…18babacked Over | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Under | 48c | 92.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Under | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 52c | 40.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Over | 33c | 37.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…5d9bbacked Under | 80c | 32.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 158 | 56.3%89 W · 69 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Under | 54c | 30.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 331 | 56.5%187 W · 144 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 46c | 30.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…52d0backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty PlayoffsMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5)Astralis won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5)MOUZ won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5)MOUZ won
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)Astralis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.