Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11fdca62ac50acb5248f3e2b06c49431761b3ac2fda42024be4d72cee7c7ca0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 284.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 277.95$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 236.66$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 24c | 214.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 170.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 169.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 26c | 167.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 16c | 152.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 146.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 135.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 38c | 130.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 127$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…c785backed No | 79c | 125.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 73c | 117.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 116.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 68c | 110.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 103.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 100.04$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 95.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 33c | 94.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 20c | 89.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 19c | 73.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 72.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 19c | 70.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 66.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 30c | 54.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 52.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 51.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 31c | 50.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 49.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 48.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes | 30c | 47.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 47.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 28c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 41.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 29c | 38.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 75c | 33.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 33.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 68c | 28.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 67c | 21.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 76c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.