TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9b5…9db1backed No10c259.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes50c217.36$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9351733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No49c213.94$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4463757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No19c202.02$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.678950.6%45 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c196.86$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.635,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No27c163.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes75c150.27$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5532147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.51,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No50c148.32$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.721,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c148.03$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No13c136.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.422,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes40c130.61$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.814839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No22c130.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.325,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes67c114.92$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c109.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.139,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes77c107.56$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1839966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No20c104.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.953,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4510850.9%55 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes56c99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.481,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No34c98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.234,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No30c95.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.465353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4b…f395backed Yes54c90.58$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.581546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes41c89.1$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No26c88.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7261752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c76.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.132,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes52c76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No62c72.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4526…2d4bbacked No26c69.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.249159.3%54 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No31c69.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.721,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed No58c69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7847738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No22c66.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.742,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No45c64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes52c63.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.175,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No18c63.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1349543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes52c62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7627047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes47c54.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0848149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes45c52.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7112832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes35c52.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.041,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No47c50.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.085,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c50.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.522746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f6…f7e6backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked Yes46c49.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes54c49.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.991,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No31c48.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1880957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes48c48.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0444536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No50c47.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes41c47.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7655538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes67c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3620144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3728…a76dbacked Yes49c41.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.245726.3%15 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…b923backed Yes71c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.897440.5%30 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes47c40.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5228441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No32c39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4848743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0a92backed Yes77c38.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.711662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes51c38.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c38.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes55c36.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+26.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes69c36.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2341046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No54c35.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.322,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes37c35.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1145236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No62c33.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6617443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97bd…f2adbacked No60c32.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.714568.9%31 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No45c32.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.371,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes48c31.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.386,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1854154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No49c29.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.352,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes78c25.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7282268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c24.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes47c22.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9919734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No55c22.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.172,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes54c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1243842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No54c21.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4998565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c20.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.694,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.279255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.264960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.94443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.852758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1040535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No59c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.791,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No59c18.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.072,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No60c16.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes66c15.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.131,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.