Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae6847323db65fc47b07329cdf046383fe6f3286be1d306209ac141d9634e356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 26c | 369.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 217.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 215$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 196.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 20c | 184.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 25c | 117.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 112.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 111.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 18c | 109.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 21c | 101.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 40c | 94.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 92.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 20c | 85.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec64…17c9backed No | 78c | 85.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 73c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 79.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 72c | 77.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 73.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 68.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 63.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 62.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 52.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…327cbacked No | 79c | 52.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 50.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 24c | 48.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 73c | 45.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…63ffbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 64c | 39.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 72c | 34.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 74c | 32.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked No | 77c | 32.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 77c | 30.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 78c | 29.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 70c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 71c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed No | 69c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 69c | 17.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 73c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 72c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…0cfbbacked No | 74c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0582…27c5backed No | 79c | 13.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.