Champions League · resolved market
FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x121fddec5a9f6c7df711770eeb1a7325fcc0465fcd6806662cf3dda7a1578d81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 22c | 3,002$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.13 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 78c | 2,411$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.2 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 22c | 2,076$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.13 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…92d2backed Under | 80c | 1,237$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 22c | 527.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 7c | 283.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 20c | 282.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 77c | 192.21$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 182.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 78c | 112$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 23c | 104.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 21c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 90.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 144 | 54.9%79 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c0…00d7backed Over | 21c | 75.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 78c | 72.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 79c | 59.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 76c | 43.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 78c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: O/U 3.5this page
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: FK Kauno Žalgiris O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: FK Kauno Žalgiris O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: KÍ O/U 0.5Under won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: O/U 5.5Under won
- FK Kauno Žalgiris vs. KÍ: Team to AdvanceFK Kauno Žalgiris won
- Spread: FK Kauno Žalgiris (-1.5)KÍ won
- Spread: FK Kauno Žalgiris (-2.5)KÍ won
- Spread: KÍ (-1.5)FK Kauno Žalgiris won
- Spread: KÍ (-2.5)FK Kauno Žalgiris won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.