Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Texas State Bobcats (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1235270cd9cf0a66fe760b294fcd7d84ccf1ecd32be748ec8a7c6e49b8c8ae89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas State Red Wolvesof Arkansas State Red Wolves, Texas State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Texas State Bobcats | 42c | 999.74$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.89 | 493 | 45.4%224 W · 269 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b75cbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 584.33$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.22 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 366.41$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.27 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 60c | 353.48$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Texas State Bobcats | 39c | 270.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…233cbacked Texas State Bobcats | 24c | 127$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…241dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…7c81backed Texas State Bobcats | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…9698backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1989…2370backed Texas State Bobcats | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Texas State Bobcats | 37c | 58.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c0…8b96backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 55.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 75c | 42.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.