Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump recognize Syrian government before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1238d095d2e8de0b944da0c06e61b93bc16961013de45049b1b95b6177bbf239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 15c | 1,463$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.08 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,433$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 72c | 1,367$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.36 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 78c | 1,027$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.15 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 52c | 1,026$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.84 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 28c | 771.95$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 19c | 458.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 79c | 405$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 17c | 382.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 38c | 380.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.23 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…44c2backed No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 56c | 258.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 6c | 178.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 7c | 161.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c6…a830backed No | 72c | 153.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 57c | 151.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…6c30backed Yes | 40c | 141$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 18c | 73.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 56c | 72.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 42c | 66.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…8fe2backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…a1c7backed No | 37c | 45.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a1…e3ddbacked No | 28c | 37.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.