Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Cyprus (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x123ce24457f101bf719048a957d4ea240047b268ae42ff9d5053bf7f87f8484a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liechtensteinof Cyprus, Liechtenstein
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cyprus | 26c | 2,093$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.2 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Liechtenstein | 69c | 1,317$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.84 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Cyprus | 41c | 523.38$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.54 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…ca25backed Cyprus | 35c | 364.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cyprus | 27c | 340.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Cyprus | 31c | 300.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Liechtenstein | 70c | 239.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Cyprus | 30c | 168.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cyprus | 19c | 159.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3e…4cbcbacked Liechtenstein | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…0c0ebacked Cyprus | 31c | 125.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Cyprus | 31c | 111.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cyprus | 30c | 87.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…9d69backed Cyprus | 20c | 85.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70d4…16a1backed Liechtenstein | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Cyprus | 36c | 82.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Liechtenstein | 69c | 58.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Liechtenstein | 78c | 56.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 311 | 49.5%154 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Cyprus | 31c | 53.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cyprus | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Liechtenstein | 69c | 49.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…9a8cbacked Cyprus | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Liechtenstein | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…9150backed Liechtenstein | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Cyprus | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Liechtenstein | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 235 | 52.8%124 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…0614backed Cyprus | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cyprus (-2.5)this page
- Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5Over won
- Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5Under won
- Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5Under won
- Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5Under won
- Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cyprus (-1.5)Cyprus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.