World Politics · resolved market
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x126faacf9f4ee117080ae7ccb2239313af5856b4cd54e73a5c00cfadee1f557c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $363,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $337,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 0c | 63,758$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x280b…a12ebacked Yes | 5c | 31,842$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…e007backed Yes | 1c | 24,603$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 5c | 19,000$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.21 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…6c15backed Yes | 1c | 18,847$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024d…586cbacked Yes | 3c | 17,986$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9364…ef4dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,603$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes | 5c | 9,506$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +309.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4102…7deabacked Yes | 1c | 7,907$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 7,578$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 1c | 6,873$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…a2cbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,918$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…d98ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,741$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…cbe1backed Yes | 2c | 4,452$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 3c | 3,168$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 3,167$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 1c | 3,050$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,936$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926e…f075backed Yes | 5c | 2,847$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,376$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,311$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…9455backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 1,864$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,778$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…4556backed Yes | 6c | 1,595$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,590$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…04a0backed Yes | 5c | 1,449$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 1,388$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffa…2db2backed Yes | 5c | 1,190$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…7dd9backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…e5b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 979.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 2c | 889.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 4c | 756.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…62c8backed Yes | 4c | 750$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 5c | 711.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 710$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…677abacked Yes | 6c | 444.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…8fdfbacked Yes | 6c | 404.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…c34abacked Yes | 6c | 227.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…e410backed Yes | 5c | 220.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 5c | 191.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?this page
- Will the Democratic Party for the People win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?Yes won
- Will the Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.