World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb98cc81cc79c18bb6341df9631dbbeab119dc77b651593c7d773237ab202096e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $870,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,127,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $870,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x024d…586cbacked No | 3c | 125,621$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…e007backed No | 0c | 31,737$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x280b…a12ebacked No | 5c | 25,363$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked No | 5c | 13,343$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +309.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 1c | 10,122$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…14b5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 9,151$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.59 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 2c | 8,225$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.62 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c9…374fbacked No | 4c | 8,144$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…3a8cbacked No | 0c | 6,756$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 3c | 6,201$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.56 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked No | 3c | 6,058$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 5,011$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…d045backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 1c | 4,927$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c7…6ff8backed No | 4c | 4,500$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 3c | 3,373$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 3,355$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…206bbacked No | 1c | 3,119$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 3c | 3,074$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 3,020$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 2c | 2,823$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 1c | 2,767$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 2,551$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571b…4493backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…c0a5backed No | 2c | 2,456$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 5c | 2,307$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…f051backed No | 1c | 2,307$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 2,259$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 3c | 1,951$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 1,900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 5c | 1,854$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…3701backed No | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…0795backed No | 6c | 1,802$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 4c | 1,570$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 4c | 1,299$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 1,233$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 5c | 1,038$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked No | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +855%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bb…6a95backed No | 1c | 935.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 3c | 888$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed No | 6c | 871$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 1c | 799.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 4c | 792.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8c…c6edbacked No | 3c | 777.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…6e41backed No | 3c | 699.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 5c | 601.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed No | 2c | 581.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…74cabacked No | 6c | 534.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…858cbacked No | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…5fe8backed No | 2c | 468.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…e5bfbacked No | 5c | 427.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…e5b9backed No | 7c | 318.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…e470backed No | 4c | 288.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 6c | 219.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…bcd4backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?this page
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Democratic Party for the People win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.