TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUBYof ex-RUBY, INOX Division
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,263
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,263 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b96…3c3dbacked INOX Division79c7,130$5,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,661.8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked INOX Division59c1,268$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.735,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed ex-RUBY41c1,017$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.1319451.5%100 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed ex-RUBY42c999.94$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.972347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ex-RUBY42c876.37$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.536,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUBY39c700.9$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.887,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked ex-RUBY25c632$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.488735.6%31 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed ex-RUBY21c551.62$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.1913324.8%33 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed INOX Division55c543.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021147.9%101 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed ex-RUBY43c540.1$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.8715740.8%64 W · 93 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed ex-RUBY38c528.37$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.231,54633.8%523 W · 1,023 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked ex-RUBY20c490$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.0836334.2%124 W · 239 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUBY41c485$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.155,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed ex-RUBY43c463.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.941,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed INOX Division55c415.94$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.82,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked ex-RUBY45c380$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.662,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed ex-RUBY40c374.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.9923146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked ex-RUBY42c359.55$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5412045%54 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x960a…4a11backed ex-RUBY43c341.51$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed INOX Division57c341.51$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6648040%192 W · 288 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf962…a670backed ex-RUBY27c335.29$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.29650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked ex-RUBY57c329.99$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.931845.3%144 W · 174 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed ex-RUBY62c317.16$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3878043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed ex-RUBY25c316$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.7437339.7%148 W · 225 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed ex-RUBY21c313$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.066225.8%16 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed ex-RUBY32c308.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4338835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed ex-RUBY24c304.8$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.3741436.7%152 W · 262 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed ex-RUBY33c300$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20014545.5%66 W · 79 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed ex-RUBY33c300$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20033241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf01f…e8fbbacked ex-RUBY19c300$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.138230.5%25 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed ex-RUBY21c292$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.6921739.2%85 W · 132 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed ex-RUBY32c285.17$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19341439.1%162 W · 252 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked ex-RUBY19c270$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.86634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed ex-RUBY19c270$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.836845.9%169 W · 199 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33d5…7146backed ex-RUBY19c270$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.82458.3%14 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+44.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed ex-RUBY19c270$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.857935.1%203 W · 376 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed ex-RUBY19c270$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.81040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed INOX Division49c256.51$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1213937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked ex-RUBY14c254.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.2319652%102 W · 94 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-RUBY27c253.39$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.965,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9851…1320backed INOX Division70c246.1$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.4112848.4%62 W · 66 L-11.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed ex-RUBY20c245$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5422324.7%55 W · 168 L-21.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked ex-RUBY49c234.6$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.587735.1%27 W · 50 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked INOX Division59c213.82$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.073,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked INOX Division57c206.07$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.872,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed INOX Division60c205.28$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1783556.2%469 W · 366 L+31.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked ex-RUBY20c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1619020%18 W · 72 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed ex-RUBY30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401,03739.8%413 W · 624 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed ex-RUBY20c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16145240.3%182 W · 270 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed ex-RUBY20c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16129347.8%140 W · 153 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked ex-RUBY20c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16121741%89 W · 128 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed ex-RUBY21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.464439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed ex-RUBY20c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16118545.4%84 W · 101 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa440…c249backed ex-RUBY20c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1612748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65e5…0cadbacked ex-RUBY20c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1611442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+61.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed ex-RUBY21c197.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.712,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed INOX Division58c197.78$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.241,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed ex-RUBY21c196$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.337022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked INOX Division64c187.24$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.574957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked ex-RUBY38c186.98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.154,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed ex-RUBY29c181.75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.391,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed INOX Division60c166$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.362,34346.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L-49.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed8…7559backed INOX Division57c160.68$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9221650%108 W · 108 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed INOX Division62c154.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.475,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x347d…098abacked INOX Division79c146.06$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.944468.2%30 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed ex-RUBY23c143.33$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.331,31444.3%582 W · 732 L+47.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed INOX Division60c135.68$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.724,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked ex-RUBY45c130.08$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.151,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ex-RUBY51c126.61$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.352,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed INOX Division57c125.28$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.011,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe252…5714backed ex-RUBY40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7523335.2%82 W · 151 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed INOX Division44c124.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8648635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed ex-RUBY16c121.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.16119.7%12 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed ex-RUBY39c115.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3844343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked INOX Division50c112.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.944,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked ex-RUBY15c104.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4916355.8%91 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked ex-RUBY31c102.35$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4189248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed ex-RUBY43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5737050.5%187 W · 183 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed ex-RUBY43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5760838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x447f…f362backed INOX Division52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.994650%23 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked INOX Division61c97.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.415747.1%74 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed INOX Division52c94.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3419329%56 W · 137 L-23.4wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xab98…eb1cbacked INOX Division54c92.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.06812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick47cpaid-77.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked INOX Division66c80$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.878963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222f…f496backed ex-RUBY46c60.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.511250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked INOX Division63c56.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.843,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x202b…e209backed ex-RUBY39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.284564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed INOX Division62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.993261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6161…c834backed ex-RUBY38c46.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.593046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed ex-RUBY43c40.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3296543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x455a…57bbbacked ex-RUBY27c40.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.471662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd7e…d68fbacked INOX Division64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258653.5%46 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c38…fd63backed INOX Division56c38.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5517257.6%99 W · 73 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked ex-RUBY40c38.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8340652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked INOX Division56c37.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.967462.2%46 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed INOX Division43c37.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91,00355.7%559 W · 444 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ex-RUBY43c35.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.094,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd067…9b9abacked INOX Division62c33.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2145663.6%290 W · 166 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked INOX Division60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1828856.6%163 W · 125 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a25…738cbacked INOX Division65c27.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183237.5%12 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-37.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.