Champions League · resolved market
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12a29dfd706ab5c700789e50df80ddfa8cd6dc8fdd3723b480a9adb39e5a58bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $458,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $456,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $458,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 9c | 127,253$11,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,281.65 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff1…4e4dbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Yes | 1c | 88,102$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.02 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 1c | 8,730$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +403.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 7c | 7,474$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.15 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Yes | 6c | 7,073$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.4 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 7c | 5,494$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.64 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…22a1backed Yes | 0c | 4,281$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 7c | 3,349$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 7c | 3,050$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…a8dbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,630$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…4ebabacked Yes | 8c | 2,515$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…a34dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,949$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…c844backed Yes | 7c | 1,829$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 7c | 1,806$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 8c | 1,790$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,460$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 221 | 47.5%105 W · 116 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 6c | 1,085$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…0b51backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Yes | 7c | 994.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 8c | 991.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f9…9a95backed Yes | 8c | 861.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 7c | 675$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa137…06d7backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 7c | 614.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 5c | 475$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…35d1backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes | 7c | 292.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…b940backed Yes | 9c | 205.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 9c | 198$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2025-10-21?this page
- Will FC Barcelona vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.