Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12be41184f4415aee335091160fe465cbd975355b2996004cf9dfd309f30af14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 12c | 431.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 384.88$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed Yes | 27c | 357.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 68c | 340.94$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 80c | 299.96$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 270.32$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 259.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 7c | 256.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 219.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 48c | 200.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 189.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 40c | 184.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 177.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 148.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 148$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 138.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 137$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 9c | 136.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 135.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 41c | 134.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 14c | 134.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 21c | 129.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 125.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 123.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 28c | 113$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 109$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 108.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 100.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 99.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 96.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 93.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 30c | 92.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 80.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 79.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 30c | 72.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 30c | 62.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 26c | 54.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 26c | 54.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 54.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 29c | 51.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 44.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 26c | 43.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 38c | 28.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 68c | 21.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 67c | 15.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 69c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 68c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 15.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 72c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.