Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef189d71f8fa7e3f737a01de4798db5be9946a5cc22d4f3f42cfa778786280d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 22c | 3,514$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.5 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 6c | 1,276$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 943.66$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 738.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 25c | 634.28$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.35 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 35c | 553.36$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 77c | 520.21$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 517.83$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 24c | 467.86$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 441.13$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 60c | 314.28$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 65c | 259.88$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 258.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 253$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 230.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 207.34$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 205.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 80c | 202.8$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 30c | 200.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 199.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 16c | 198.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 64c | 193$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 76c | 186.04$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 176$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 171.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 166.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 158.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 16c | 157.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 23c | 155.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 150.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 65c | 131.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 66c | 130.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 121.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 117.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 112.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 32c | 106.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 105.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 23c | 104.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 31c | 102.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 96.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 36c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 91.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…6bfabacked No | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed Yes | 40c | 85.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 77.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 61c | 71.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4734…003dbacked Yes | 34c | 70.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 69.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 66.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 33c | 64.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 27c | 63.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 68c | 62.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 59.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 27c | 58.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 29c | 55.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 29c | 54.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 63c | 53.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed No | 75c | 53.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 62c | 52.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 52.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 52.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 34c | 51.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 36c | 50.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 30c | 49.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 37c | 48.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 40c | 47.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 40c | 47.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 45.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 34c | 41.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.