Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ac6635d48c7589e5034321baa33591a7a711e10d6dc2b5bfbb2fdf62f50909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 1c | 2,175$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 38c | 792.55$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.67 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed No | 67c | 627.72$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.84 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 26c | 443.9$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.62 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 28c | 364.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 61c | 291.9$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.37 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 32c | 277.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.72 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 266.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.58 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 24c | 264.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.63 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked No | 9c | 263.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 54c | 256.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.56 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 47c | 202.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 196.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 177.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 71c | 177.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 66c | 164.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 161.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 29c | 159.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 153$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 144.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 140.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 131$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 80c | 120.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 25c | 120.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 16c | 113.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 113$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 40c | 104.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 100.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 99.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 98.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 11c | 98.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 93.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 86.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 69c | 86.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 77.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 76.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 68c | 69.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 67.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 30c | 61.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 60.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 45c | 41.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 40.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 60c | 34.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 72c | 32.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 44c | 31.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 30.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 28.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 27.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 69c | 26.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 72c | 24.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 64c | 23.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 18.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 18.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 77c | 15.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 14.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.