NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals: Thunder to win game 4 and the series?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1327df083838278d61cae491a7f96f4c4c5d1850e9b13902577e3c5b9e7cce87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a75…4347backed No | 51c | 23,536$11,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,938.46 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 49c | 19,140$9,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,745.76 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 57c | 6,339$3,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.23 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 22c | 1,558$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 78c | 1,382$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.1 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 79c | 1,186$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.41 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 23c | 914.85$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.36 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked No | 26c | 900.23$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 8c | 730.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 80c | 497.5$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 20c | 456.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…a06bbacked No | 22c | 301.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2508backed No | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 19c | 196.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…b07cbacked No | 21c | 186.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 18c | 147$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6455…eff4backed No | 11c | 130.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…304cbacked No | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 20c | 118.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed No | 20c | 106.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…bfafbacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…d80ebacked No | 26c | 96.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 27c | 80.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…b152backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…291dbacked Yes | 73c | 33.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…d3b1backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked Yes | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.