TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Dubai Tennis Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Humbertof Humbert, Tsitsipas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$260,007
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$288,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,007 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Humbert58c29,983$17,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,530.852,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Humbert69c21,811$14,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,852.197,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Tsitsipas42c19,211$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0004560%27 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3905…82fcbacked Tsitsipas41c16,608$6,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,766.145563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Humbert75c11,952$8,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.387644.7%34 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Tsitsipas36c11,505$4,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.282,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Tsitsipas32c10,705$3,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,397.152650%13 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Humbert50c10,247$5,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,169.763852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Tsitsipas48c8,500$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059.9729146%134 W · 157 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Humbert52c7,624$3,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,629.165158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Tsitsipas48c6,189$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.6855646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Tsitsipas48c5,839$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.6643051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Humbert64c5,797$3,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.8781349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Humbert52c5,766$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,767.7658139.9%232 W · 349 L+0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Tsitsipas50c5,407$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.7427560%165 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Humbert52c4,699$2,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.3994355.7%525 W · 418 L+22.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Humbert63c4,463$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.552,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Humbert52c4,020$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.576546.8%358 W · 407 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c2f…499cbacked Humbert61c3,848$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.1910345.6%47 W · 56 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Tsitsipas55c3,606$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ce…99f6backed Tsitsipas28c3,576$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017936.9%66 W · 113 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Tsitsipas28c3,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02b…70d6backed Tsitsipas46c3,314$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.2217462.6%109 W · 65 L+34.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x3c54…09c4backed Humbert54c3,300$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5183342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae9…5b36backed Tsitsipas34c3,292$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.863240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Tsitsipas28c3,070$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.3424643.9%108 W · 138 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Tsitsipas47c3,010$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.381,43728.5%409 W · 1,028 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Tsitsipas51c2,944$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Humbert56c2,907$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.6231647.8%151 W · 165 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Humbert70c2,488$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.916,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Humbert52c2,463$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.557645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Tsitsipas48c2,452$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.0821338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Humbert72c2,356$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.426,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Humbert51c2,210$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.4415244.1%67 W · 85 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Tsitsipas51c2,118$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08099139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Humbert53c2,045$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.283467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tsitsipas47c2,014$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.791,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Humbert68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…d35fbacked Humbert48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Humbert58c1,994$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.472,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Tsitsipas54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Tsitsipas30c1,675$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.591618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Tsitsipas30c1,590$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.8219134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Humbert72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.8936968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Humbert53c1,321$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.7514250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Tsitsipas49c1,233$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60063247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Humbert53c1,136$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.71,12542.8%482 W · 643 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Tsitsipas47c1,060$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.191,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1a…89e5backed Humbert52c1,040$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.192853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Humbert52c1,039$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.7227063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e3b…4afdbacked Tsitsipas49c1,021$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Tsitsipas49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020542.4%87 W · 118 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Tsitsipas49c1,017$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Tsitsipas48c1,013$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.2231332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Tsitsipas48c1,008$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.261,20649%591 W · 615 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Humbert52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.993256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10dd…4831backed Humbert77c988.09$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.5211858.5%69 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Tsitsipas33c976.15$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.021,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Tsitsipas48c950$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45616133.5%54 W · 107 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Humbert52c908.42$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.0438652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Tsitsipas49c899$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.511,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Humbert52c799.99$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.994562.2%28 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Tsitsipas46c761$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.067,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Humbert75c692$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0369249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Humbert52c689.74$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.0842141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Humbert52c673.08$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0843448.4%210 W · 224 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Humbert59c659.26$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.468,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3d…3ec1backed Tsitsipas31c647.05$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029530.5%29 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Tsitsipas48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011046.4%51 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Tsitsipas49c610$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.916648.8%81 W · 85 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Tsitsipas49c592.22$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.198350.6%42 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Humbert53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0413260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Humbert53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.049453.2%50 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2755…fef0backed Tsitsipas36c560.27$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0422634.5%78 W · 148 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed Humbert54c555.59$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.592065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3bc…c824backed Humbert53c543$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.03977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+30.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Tsitsipas47c528.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25068139.1%266 W · 415 L-30.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x640b…ec00backed Humbert49c525.98$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.179738.1%37 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Tsitsipas29c513.03$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7852133%172 W · 349 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Tsitsipas53c489.25$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.362534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b2b…d4d3backed Tsitsipas41c488.27$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.043842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Tsitsipas48c477.75$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.1823152.4%121 W · 110 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Tsitsipas53c471.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508262.2%51 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Humbert52c470$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.633241.6%138 W · 194 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Tsitsipas49c469.39$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23060641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Humbert68c458$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.831,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Tsitsipas51c457.99$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.5881938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Tsitsipas54c454.94$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.626934.8%24 W · 45 L-9.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x529c…1809backed Tsitsipas4c444.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.911338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Tsitsipas28c428.57$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202763%17 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Tsitsipas49c408.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Tsitsipas49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021758.1%126 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Tsitsipas29c402$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5824350.2%122 W · 121 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Tsitsipas47c400.44$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.251,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Humbert52c400$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19346649.8%232 W · 234 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Tsitsipas53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21210340.8%42 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Humbert50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20046030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Tsitsipas47c399.91$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9638133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Tsitsipas40c394.9$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15684736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Tsitsipas51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20058859%347 W · 241 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.