CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x139b54f508c23414a07ce8e003b0be4e6fe6dbdec863015aeb94296b84c2ba18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Team Falcons, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed Team Falcons | 46c | 10,690$4,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,898.2 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora Gaming | 53c | 10,162$5,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,776.11 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 9,000$4,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,139.94 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Team Falcons | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Team Falcons | 47c | 3,505$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.69 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 973.88$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.87 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Team Falcons | 46c | 779.26$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.16 | 210 | 42.9%90 W · 120 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f8a0backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 187 | 52.4%98 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Aurora Gaming | 52c | 578.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.58 | 180 | 40.6%73 W · 107 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…1da2backed Aurora Gaming | 53c | 471.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.89 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…ff18backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Team Falcons | 47c | 449$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora Gaming | 53c | 241.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bc…9d13backed Team Falcons | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 170.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed Aurora Gaming | 53c | 122.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed Aurora Gaming | 53c | 115.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 625 | 38.6%241 W · 384 L | -16.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 107.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Falcons | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…d6f0backed Team Falcons | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…5247backed Aurora Gaming | 56c | 89.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9021…bf4ebacked Aurora Gaming | 55c | 80.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Team Falcons | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 232 | 34.9%81 W · 151 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…8063backed Team Falcons | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -8.7wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Team Falcons | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Aurora Gaming | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 205 | 39.5%81 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa01c…6b40backed Team Falcons | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…6b6abacked Aurora Gaming | 55c | 54.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…91fdbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…91e2backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Aurora Gaming | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Team Falcons | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora Gaming | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbd…191dbacked Aurora Gaming | 53c | 32.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Aurora Gaming | 56c | 30.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 179 | 44.1%79 W · 100 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…d007backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 24.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…c2babacked Aurora Gaming | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 471 | 46.7%220 W · 251 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Aurora Gaming | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.