NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13a1a82c0a0fd971caa679decf8931ae150ceebc7b20e48a086fdb88a370472a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jacketsof Lightning, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Lightning | 33c | 6,767$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.03 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Blue Jackets | 67c | 1,210$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.29 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 33c | 1,054$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.79 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 1,017$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.6 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Blue Jackets | 67c | 914.93$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.93 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Lightning | 32c | 900$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.19 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Blue Jackets | 67c | 845.44$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 836$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.88 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Blue Jackets | 67c | 656.72$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.72 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 650$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 599$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.89 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 597.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blue Jackets | 67c | 535.21$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blue Jackets | 66c | 489.41$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Blue Jackets | 70c | 344.47$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 309.5$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b7…cc32backed Lightning | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 252.21$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Lightning | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Blue Jackets | 68c | 198.14$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…5344backed Blue Jackets | 66c | 185.12$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Lightning | 31c | 114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Lightning | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Lightning | 22c | 99.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…6e5bbacked Lightning | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Blue Jackets | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Blue Jackets | 68c | 87.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Lightning | 34c | 85.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Blue Jackets | 69c | 74.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 33c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Lightning | 32c | 62.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Blue Jackets | 67c | 44.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Blue Jackets | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Blue Jackets | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…9e0bbacked Lightning | 33c | 39.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…ad29backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Blue Jackets | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Blue Jackets | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 28.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blue Jackets | 67c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Blue Jackets | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jackets | 78c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Blue Jackets | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -5.1wins | -0.39per pick | 62cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. Blue JacketsBlue Jackets won
- Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.