NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba3cdad1f223829b6409feb76ce4aa57af6aabd003447bb6d062ad8b61bcb670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Under | 54c | 55,087$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 22,500$10,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,150 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 53c | 20,260$10,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,685.38 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 10,150$4,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,582.5 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…0c53backed Over | 46c | 9,000$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,820 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 52c | 8,902$4,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,629.04 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 8,487$4,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,413.24 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 7,670$3,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,198.22 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 47c | 6,767$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.51 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,120 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 45c | 4,883$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,685.76 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 54c | 2,098$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.92 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 55c | 2,020$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 1,326$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.78 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 47c | 1,001$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.61 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Over | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Over | 46c | 795.25$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.44 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 45c | 778$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.9 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 46c | 700$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.61 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 45c | 661.11$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 46c | 542$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.68 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 45c | 490$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.3 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 446.81$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.81 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 47c | 358.51$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.01 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 46c | 228$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 54c | 198.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…9431backed Over | 47c | 186.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Over | 47c | 165.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.96 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Under | 54c | 153.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 265 | 47.5%126 W · 139 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 112.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 46c | 74.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Over | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 486 | 54.1%263 W · 223 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 47c | 45.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 46c | 45.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 54c | 44.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 39.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…138cbacked Under | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 66c | 28.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. Blue JacketsBlue Jackets won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Blue Jackets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.