Lol · resolved market
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1403049924797ea720a2f05630eaa35a150b81a976d7c08b8b660d572fc5c346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Karmine Corpof Karmine Corp, Shifters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Shifters | 16c | 23,131$3,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,774.09 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Shifters | 0c | 20,339$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…e7e0backed Shifters | 17c | 18,666$3,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,226.11 | 481 | 49.7%239 W · 242 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Shifters | 0c | 11,415$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 295 | 27.1%80 W · 215 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…6fb7backed Shifters | 3c | 7,009$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.83 | 186 | 33.3%62 W · 124 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Shifters | 18c | 7,009$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.64 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Shifters | 15c | 5,174$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.56 | 903 | 48.4%437 W · 466 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…787abacked Shifters | 12c | 3,789$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.17 | 610 | 45.2%276 W · 334 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed Shifters | 4c | 2,702$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 893 | 47%420 W · 473 L | +44.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Shifters | 20c | 1,952$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.4 | 502 | 42.2%212 W · 290 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Shifters | 1c | 1,456$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 525 | 38.9%204 W · 321 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc177…7fbbbacked Shifters | 3c | 1,190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 164 | 29.9%49 W · 115 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb8…aa5fbacked Shifters | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 226 | 1.8%4 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked Shifters | 18c | 686.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Shifters | 16c | 656.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 436 | 42.4%185 W · 251 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…ea47backed Shifters | 14c | 627.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 1,294 | 26.6%344 W · 950 L | +65.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ba…afdabacked Shifters | 8c | 549.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 176 | 16.5%29 W · 147 L | -11.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Shifters | 19c | 534.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Shifters | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 611 | 43.5%266 W · 345 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…ce30backed Shifters | 20c | 480$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Shifters | 17c | 474.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 1,056 | 28.5%301 W · 755 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Shifters | 15c | 447.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Shifters | 18c | 399.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shifters | 4c | 316.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,539 | 43.7%673 W · 866 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…5225backed Shifters | 15c | 311.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Shifters | 19c | 300.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 861 | 44.1%380 W · 481 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Shifters | 13c | 298.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,899 | 37.1%705 W · 1,194 L | -113.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…0782backed Shifters | 17c | 279.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1,322 | 53.2%703 W · 619 L | +36.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Karmine Corp | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Shifters | 6c | 243.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 584 | 20.2%118 W · 466 L | -58.1wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa390…c7d9backed Shifters | 16c | 224.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…7adfbacked Shifters | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 36.7%69 W · 119 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Shifters | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 524 | 38.9%204 W · 320 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…1457backed Shifters | 10c | 184.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 366 | 43.7%160 W · 206 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…c9bebacked Shifters | 17c | 167.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…9b4ebacked Shifters | 8c | 157.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 325 | 54.8%178 W · 147 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Karmine Corp | 78c | 153.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Shifters | 17c | 143.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Shifters | 15c | 114.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Shifters | 19c | 101.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Shifters | 20c | 99.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 505 | 49.3%249 W · 256 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Shifters | 16c | 98.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Shifters | 18c | 76.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 251 | 51%128 W · 123 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed Shifters | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Shifters | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…6483backed Karmine Corp | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 269 | 58%156 W · 113 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)Shifters won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonKarmine Corp won
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerShifters won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.