TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shiftersof Karmine Corp, Shifters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$432,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$530,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,921 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26f8…3452backed Shifters19c60,651$11,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,127.5227353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Shifters73c22,621$16,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,018.3689347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Shifters15c10,913$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,292.348149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Karmine Corp58c6,953$4,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,032.6967760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Shifters15c6,187$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,260.231,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Karmine Corp79c5,913$4,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,689.371,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Shifters16c5,768$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,858.1767250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shifters12c5,721$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,015.492,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Shifters29c5,345$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,770.571,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Shifters15c5,298$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,525.342,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Shifters60c4,185$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.951,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Karmine Corp74c3,778$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.461,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Karmine Corp69c3,770$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.661,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Karmine Corp1c3,762$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6246258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Shifters36c3,372$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.451,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Karmine Corp70c3,333$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.151044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Karmine Corp1c3,100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3723943.1%103 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Shifters29c3,066$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.5615543.9%68 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Shifters21c2,995$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,363.5435431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Karmine Corp59c2,868$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.561,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Karmine Corp74c2,855$2,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,122.621,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Karmine Corp1c2,700$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294621.7%10 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed Karmine Corp2c2,625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45621.6%1 W · 61 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-83.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Karmine Corp2c2,625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4517610.2%18 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Karmine Corp2c2,625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45365.6%2 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked Karmine Corp2c2,625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45350%0 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Karmine Corp2c2,625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451095.5%6 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-67.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Karmine Corp2c2,625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451541.9%3 W · 151 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Karmine Corp65c2,246$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.4575342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Karmine Corp51c2,240$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.9791854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Karmine Corp61c2,237$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.6319743.7%86 W · 111 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shifters12c2,155$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.172,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Karmine Corp2c2,150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Shifters39c2,129$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.5242941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Karmine Corp42c2,091$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.2131036.1%112 W · 198 L-18.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2273…6a6abacked Karmine Corp69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3802972.4%21 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Karmine Corp1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202524%6 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Karmine Corp77c2,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.851,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Shifters57c1,999$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.8363546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Shifters14c1,793$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.0923832.4%77 W · 161 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6acf…fb01backed Shifters16c1,781$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.6211100%11 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+106.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Shifters63c1,767$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.481,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Shifters12c1,539$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+60.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed Shifters11c1,518$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.2929527.1%80 W · 215 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2248…bc0ebacked Karmine Corp66c1,475$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.8719745.2%89 W · 108 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d7a…87c7backed Karmine Corp68c1,450$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.512763%80 W · 47 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Shifters15c1,424$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.3995951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Karmine Corp51c1,393$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.1864247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Karmine Corp53c1,235$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.5882044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Karmine Corp63c1,205$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.871,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Karmine Corp64c1,201$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.2950569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Shifters28c1,119$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.6150242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Karmine Corp45c1,117$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.3135346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Karmine Corp1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.2wins0.00per pick1cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Shifters12c1,000$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8801,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed Karmine Corp2c970$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x419e…deb1backed Karmine Corp42c937.12$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.3814154.6%77 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Shifters14c912.89$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.0256432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Shifters20c904.99$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.2910933%36 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Karmine Corp78c865.2$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.031,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Shifters29c861.63$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.172,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb936…6718backed Karmine Corp66c790.04$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.471172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Karmine Corp50c750$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37571249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed Shifters42c723.72$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.2936643.7%160 W · 206 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Shifters18c703.74$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.2951348.3%248 W · 265 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb538…7a1ebacked Shifters74c696.24$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a16…de20backed Karmine Corp75c601.09$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.8227455.8%153 W · 121 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Shifters30c600$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed Shifters39c600$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3697631.6%24 W · 52 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Shifters40c593.55$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.0315364.1%98 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Shifters25c590.83$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5561143.5%266 W · 345 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Karmine Corp74c583.4$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.381,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Karmine Corp47c572.69$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.8937641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Shifters47c542.43$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28513454.5%73 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d6…f22ebacked Shifters16c537.09$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.632763%17 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Shifters57c505.94$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.9432160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed Shifters15c504.89$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.1655750.4%281 W · 276 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Shifters11c496.74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5317942.5%76 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Shifters19c492.96$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.31,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32f2…7830backed Karmine Corp17c469.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Karmine Corp50c465.8$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2986251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Karmine Corp6c454$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1549739.4%196 W · 301 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Karmine Corp65c421.51$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.572,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Shifters45c412.69$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.3957947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Shifters28c410.06$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.2434651.2%177 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Karmine Corp55c402.91$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.8633042.4%140 W · 190 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed08…e082backed Karmine Corp59c395.68$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6319860.1%119 W · 79 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2eb…8979backed Karmine Corp49c395.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8818347.5%87 W · 96 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Karmine Corp80c395.16$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.4348652.1%253 W · 233 L+2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Shifters12c394.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.318360.2%50 W · 33 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+55.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Karmine Corp68c389.62$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9454246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Shifters25c386.19$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.7150051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Karmine Corp38c385.05$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2133251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Shifters16c379.6$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.421,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3976…d68ebacked Shifters22c371.76$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.3511630.2%35 W · 81 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc400…21a7backed Karmine Corp52c371.67$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2723149.8%115 W · 116 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Shifters24c355.88$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.7158420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed Karmine Corp43c345.14$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4742847.9%205 W · 223 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ba…afdabacked Shifters24c334.01$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.9617616.5%29 W · 147 L-11.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-36.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Karmine Corp59c330.64$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.081,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.