NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14098ab32ba10f309298d0d7edd192f964072637ff5233523280119aad50de3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.97 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 66c | 3,210$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.54 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 72c | 976.05$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.85 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 51c | 615.36$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.76 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…a7fabacked Over | 66c | 590.38$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.2 | 255 | 55.3%141 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 64c | 555.55$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 36c | 534.22$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.32 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 9c | 321.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 51c | 297.14$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 66c | 293.88$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Under | 35c | 279.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 234.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 34c | 169.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1979…c15cbacked Under | 15c | 165.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 34c | 160.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 66c | 157.75$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 33c | 145.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Under | 13c | 135.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 66c | 111.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 66c | 97.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 66c | 97.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Over | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Under | 35c | 74.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 33c | 51.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 79c | 50.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 65c | 49.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 47c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…18c6backed Over | 67c | 46.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 35c | 45.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64c…f45ebacked Under | 34c | 40.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…4548backed Over | 66c | 37.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 68c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…1f84backed Over | 66c | 32.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 64c | 31.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4479…c84abacked Over | 66c | 31.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Over | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…92d8backed Over | 57c | 29.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 72c | 24.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…bdd8backed Over | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Ducks vs. OilersOilers won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.