NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8951e598cf16bd84171e921116501756be0f5b2507ea9695cf63a5728d0eb77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 1c | 3,276$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 35c | 2,090$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 65c | 1,437$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.84 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 1,377$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.24 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Over | 44c | 1,192$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.07 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Over | 35c | 1,100$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.39 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 30c | 993.64$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.3 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Under | 65c | 910.86$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 36c | 719.41$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.59 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Over | 47c | 664.1$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Over | 47c | 627.5$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.92 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 30c | 558.54$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 17c | 488.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Under | 42c | 427.45$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.58 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 401.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 66c | 370.14$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 33c | 345.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 48c | 305.3$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…03c2backed Under | 67c | 293.3$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 69c | 258.64$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…b138backed Under | 69c | 237.17$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 43c | 211.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Over | 37c | 208.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 75c | 196.6$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 37c | 194.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 185.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Under | 69c | 178.92$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Under | 70c | 176.73$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 57c | 171.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Over | 37c | 156.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Over | 35c | 138.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…5568backed Under | 69c | 132.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd1…7e42backed Under | 70c | 127.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 38c | 122.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Under | 69c | 117.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 52c | 108$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed Under | 67c | 98.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 34c | 92.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…6886backed Under | 69c | 88.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 86.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…18c6backed Under | 69c | 85.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked Over | 63c | 78.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 60c | 78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 29c | 77.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…930ebacked Under | 70c | 73.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…9c69backed Under | 75c | 59.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eca…87dabacked Under | 69c | 58.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 58.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Over | 35c | 53.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 43c | 49.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Under | 79c | 48.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Over | 47c | 48.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 34c | 46.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…a54bbacked Under | 54c | 45.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 60c | 40.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 48c | 39.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 33c | 36.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 41c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 49c | 34.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 50c | 32.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Over | 58c | 28.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed Over | 46c | 28.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Over | 47c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5this page
- Ducks vs. OilersOilers won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.