TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,509 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc291…5d74backed Under35c3,236$1,136 inWon+$2,100.753,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c1,841$974 inWon+$867.588,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over46c1,370$626 inLost-$626.0151750.7%262 W · 255 L+28.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over41c749.98$309 inLost-$308.7144843.8%196 W · 252 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over52c560.47$293 inLost-$293.261,53745.2%695 W · 842 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under40c500$200 inWon+$3001,65150.6%836 W · 815 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf531…121cbacked Over60c466.67$280 inLost-$2802250%11 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over51c399.99$203 inLost-$203.0389645.4%407 W · 489 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under49c352.42$174 inWon+$178.521,44345.9%662 W · 781 L-22.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…7b1abacked Over48c208.33$100 inLost-$1001936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10a…d6c2backed Over62c161.29$100 inLost-$1005248.1%25 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over67c144$96 inLost-$9689846.1%414 W · 484 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under31c90$28 inWon+$62.15547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea8…90c9backed Over62c78.71$49 inLost-$48.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over52c75.13$39 inLost-$39.321,03849.4%513 W · 525 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4942…3558backed Over47c64.11$30 inLost-$30955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over60c47.83$29 inLost-$28.571,43937.5%540 W · 899 L+4.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under40c29.97$12 inWon+$17.8542462.3%264 W · 160 L+24.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under53c27$14 inWon+$12.692,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over43c26$11 inLost-$11.25456.7%3 W · 42 L-16.3wins-0.36per pick43cpaid-90.1%equal weight24-0.23 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Under48c25$12 inWon+$13.054858.3%28 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under54c24$13 inWon+$11.041,30250.2%653 W · 649 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over48c21.22$10 inLost-$10.2727442%115 W · 159 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.