TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x479e…91c3backed Under80c6,283$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.711172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over18c5,749$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.435,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over13c5,190$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.333,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over15c3,076$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.58,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over16c2,593$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.961,44345.9%662 W · 781 L-22.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3740…a935backed Under79c2,081$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.7810364.1%66 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over10c2,039$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9211618.1%21 W · 95 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over19c1,120$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.722,17043.7%948 W · 1,222 L-53.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Under74c858.23$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.75457.4%31 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over19c835.11$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4257540.2%231 W · 344 L+2.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Under79c600$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.352281.8%18 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick71cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Over22c411.13$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3421044.3%93 W · 117 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf08b…7e76backed Under76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.744562.2%28 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…5513backed Over20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505815.5%9 W · 49 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Over25c225.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.111020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over21c224.53$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.461,32857%757 W · 571 L+57.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over26c130$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9351750.7%262 W · 255 L+28.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over23c121.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9529245.2%132 W · 160 L-24.0wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over20c112$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.489846.1%414 W · 484 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over15c110$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8767548%324 W · 351 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Under77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x259b…a2d3backed Over21c96.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205046%23 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over25c89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1718426.1%48 W · 136 L-0.5wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over17c86.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6831039.7%123 W · 187 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over34c84.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.821,25356.2%704 W · 549 L+73.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb421…696cbacked Over25c80.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.581233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Over24c79.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1555250.2%277 W · 275 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa597…79d7backed Under78c77.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0af…bfd0backed Over26c75.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Over18c59.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89026.7%24 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under72c54.53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1419150.3%96 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Over29c41.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8911944.5%53 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Under80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1210365%67 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under60c36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.444843.8%196 W · 252 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under69c29.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21,03849.4%513 W · 525 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a44…846ebacked Under72c27.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Under78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Under73c23.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.431369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under78c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1821752.1%113 W · 104 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under76c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.061,53745.2%695 W · 842 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ebd…0784backed Under72c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4b…802bbacked Under77c12.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.992642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.