South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb42da9852a8c6180cdf1ed9b2955f2844ccf0d2df3577ca71b4e8146ab6be56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 80c | 6,283$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 5,749$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.43 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 5,190$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.33 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 3,076$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.5 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 16c | 2,593$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.96 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 79c | 2,081$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.78 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 10c | 2,039$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.92 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 1,120$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.72 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 74c | 858.23$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.7 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 19c | 835.11$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.42 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 79c | 600$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.35 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 22c | 411.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed Under | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed Over | 25c | 225.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 21c | 224.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 23c | 121.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 20c | 112$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Over | 21c | 96.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 25c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 17c | 86.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 34c | 84.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…696cbacked Over | 25c | 80.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 24c | 79.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…79d7backed Under | 78c | 77.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0af…bfd0backed Over | 26c | 75.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 72c | 54.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 29c | 41.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 69c | 29.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a44…846ebacked Under | 72c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Under | 73c | 23.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebd…0784backed Under | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5this page
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 0.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 3.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 5.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Pumas de la UNAM 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Pumas de la UNAM 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Pumas de la UNAM O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Pumas de la UNAM O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.