South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae03bb4a8dc372dc42f28eba1a5ec4705b3a4c92e614471343bf70946e0bfe78

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pumas de la UNAMof Deportivo Toluca FC, Pumas de la UNAM
Resolved: Jul 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,382 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Deportivo Toluca FC	45c	15,720$7,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,012.76	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pumas de la UNAM	61c	11,787$7,156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,631.62	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Deportivo Toluca FC	54c	2,805$1,502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,502.33	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	+16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d75…3d44backed Pumas de la UNAM	50c	1,817$908 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$908.55	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Pumas de la UNAM	48c	1,661$797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$863.72	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55a6…eeb0backed Deportivo Toluca FC	38c	1,327$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pumas de la UNAM	62c	1,222$758 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$464.38	1,944	51.3%998 W · 946 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Pumas de la UNAM	52c	1,123$588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$535.15	552	50.2%277 W · 275 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x162c…6c47backed Pumas de la UNAM	49c	992.2$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$506.02	87	63.2%55 W · 32 L	+9.0wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+21%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7087…8c57backed Deportivo Toluca FC	37c	841.07$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.88	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	6c	820.15$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.63	2,170	43.7%948 W · 1,222 L	-53.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb341…88e7backed Deportivo Toluca FC	50c	610$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.31per pick	52cpaid	+65.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed Deportivo Toluca FC	50c	595.51$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	110	39.1%43 W · 67 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Pumas de la UNAM	59c	518.28$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.98	951	55.8%531 W · 420 L	+31.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Pumas de la UNAM	46c	493.05$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.02	210	44.3%93 W · 117 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Pumas de la UNAM	45c	371.89$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.54	575	40.2%231 W · 344 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Pumas de la UNAM	63c	317$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.29	310	39.7%123 W · 187 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Deportivo Toluca FC	37c	239.09$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.67	1,439	37.5%540 W · 899 L	+4.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Pumas de la UNAM	63c	218.2$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.73	404	51.2%207 W · 197 L	-13.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Deportivo Toluca FC	36c	167.36$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Deportivo Toluca FC	34c	150.94$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.32	517	49.9%258 W · 259 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6096…0f9cbacked Pumas de la UNAM	66c	150.94$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.32	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…7b1abacked Deportivo Toluca FC	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4a6…c03bbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	52c	134.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31c7…eca3backed Deportivo Toluca FC	52c	130.77$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	34c	128$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.52	898	46.1%414 W · 484 L	-11.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0daf…17a9backed Pumas de la UNAM	66c	120.3$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.31	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd9…932fbacked Pumas de la UNAM	67c	119.16$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.92	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Pumas de la UNAM	46c	115.22$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.22	75	49.3%37 W · 38 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Pumas de la UNAM	46c	110.87$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.87	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Pumas de la UNAM	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Pumas de la UNAM	50c	103$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.67	720	58.8%423 W · 297 L	+29.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.83	506	43.9%222 W · 284 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Pumas de la UNAM	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	424	62.3%264 W · 160 L	+24.4wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Pumas de la UNAM	46c	97.83$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.83	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3b…28bdbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	37c	97.3$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Pumas de la UNAM	53c	95.91$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.88	191	64.4%123 W · 68 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Pumas de la UNAM	46c	93.48$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.48	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Pumas de la UNAM	66c	90.48$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.76	1,253	56.2%704 W · 549 L	+73.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35f9…12a6backed Pumas de la UNAM	48c	89$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.28	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82fb…0b6ebacked Deportivo Toluca FC	37c	81.08$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	91	58.2%53 W · 38 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0598…3d83backed Deportivo Toluca FC	38c	79.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.3wins	-0.21per pick	52cpaid	-46%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	56c	75$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.35	485	47.6%231 W · 254 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…b4d2backed Pumas de la UNAM	50c	73.39$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.7	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a1e…f992backed Pumas de la UNAM	45c	73.33$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.33	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Pumas de la UNAM	64c	67.54$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.43	2,611	54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L	+25.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Deportivo Toluca FC	58c	64$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.33	519	45.7%237 W · 282 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	36c	55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Deportivo Toluca FC	36c	52.85$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.09	350	46.3%162 W · 188 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba1d…d326backed Pumas de la UNAM	43c	52.78$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.08	126	46%58 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f26…bac3backed Deportivo Toluca FC	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Pumas de la UNAM	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Pumas de la UNAM	61c	49.33$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.41	90	56.7%51 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3250…7beabacked Pumas de la UNAM	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x259b…a2d3backed Pumas de la UNAM	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	50	46%23 W · 27 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Pumas de la UNAM	50c	42$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6266…7986backed Deportivo Toluca FC	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc60…6c08backed Pumas de la UNAM	66c	39.88$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.65	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x038f…ecc5backed Deportivo Toluca FC	36c	36.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Pumas de la UNAM	46c	32.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.61	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.29per pick	46cpaid	+61.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Pumas de la UNAM	38c	32$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.84	1,038	49.4%513 W · 525 L	+14.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Pumas de la UNAM	63c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	145	63.4%92 W · 53 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Pumas de la UNAM	66c	26.52$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.02	168	64.9%109 W · 59 L	+14.9wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Pumas de la UNAM	60c	19.67$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.85	630	61.3%386 W · 244 L	+22.3wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Pumas de la UNAM	67c	19.07$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.23	164	59.8%98 W · 66 L	+7.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b9…88d2backed Pumas de la UNAM	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)this page
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 0.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 0.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 3.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 5.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Pumas de la UNAM 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Pumas de la UNAM 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Pumas de la UNAM O/U 1.5Over won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Pumas de la UNAM O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event