NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142855f0155bb672c41fb90fcc24ab43a08c0bcab86f1152afb6dbdcec1180af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Under | 55c | 3,621$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 2,228$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Over | 45c | 2,131$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.11 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 52c | 1,721$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.58 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 48c | 1,496$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.92 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Over | 45c | 1,176$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.81 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 54c | 564.74$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.96 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 52c | 340$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 55c | 274.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 45c | 217.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.82 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 52c | 123.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 32c | 119.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb134…b496backed Under | 51c | 113.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Under | 52c | 92.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 46c | 51.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 53c | 36.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…5cdcbacked Under | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 46c | 25.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 54c | 23.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5this page
- Magic vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.