NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2976e35aa3f3fc64196ba33089316cde5cbe25a71b418679c7c076589642860e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Magic | 53c | 18,488$9,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,798.73 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 54c | 16,816$9,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,077.79 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Nuggets | 48c | 14,952$7,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,729.8 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Nuggets | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 46c | 7,015$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,814.78 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaceb…6f8ebacked Nuggets | 53c | 3,800$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 47c | 3,695$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Magic | 52c | 3,582$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.45 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets | 49c | 2,789$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.9 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,681$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.89 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Magic | 47c | 1,560$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.2 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 1,492$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Magic | 53c | 1,066$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Magic | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Magic | 50c | 1,039$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Magic | 53c | 1,023$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.66 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,021$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.36 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Magic | 53c | 999.16$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.55 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Magic | 51c | 888.14$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.95 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 52c | 883.9$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Magic | 47c | 680.85$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Magic | 53c | 654.72$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Magic | 48c | 616$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Magic | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Magic | 53c | 599.99$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.99 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Magic | 53c | 424$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.72 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic | 47c | 373$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.31 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nuggets | 47c | 340$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Magic | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Magic | 47c | 296.54$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.37 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Nuggets | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Magic | 36c | 199.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Magic | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Nuggets | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…fe97backed Magic | 53c | 139.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Magic | 47c | 133.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…49aabacked Nuggets | 48c | 132$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c927backed Magic | 53c | 109.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Magic | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Magic | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Magic | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Magic | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Magic | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Nuggets | 48c | 99.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Nuggets | 45c | 95.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Magic | 47c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Magic | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Nuggets | 47c | 74.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…67cbbacked Nuggets | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Nuggets | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Magic | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Nuggets | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Magic | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…c86fbacked Nuggets | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Magic | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…c668backed Nuggets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Magic | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Magic | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Magic | 47c | 37.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Magic | 53c | 36.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Magic | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6127backed Magic | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Magic | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)this page
- Magic vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.