NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6eaa0bb94354b6470fb700e42a618b2ad8650dc60fc7bf94c1a65e75669c375
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 49c | 84,025$41,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,268.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…c625backed Nuggets | 51c | 38,383$19,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,807.78 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Nuggets | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,700 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 51c | 5,704$2,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,795.18 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Nuggets | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 50c | 2,700$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nuggets | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 49c | 2,451$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.01 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,308$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.76 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Nuggets | 51c | 1,154$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.73 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 48c | 870$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.97 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Magic | 49c | 820$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.8 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 47c | 222$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Magic | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Nuggets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Nuggets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 49c | 161.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Magic | 50c | 160.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets | 47c | 113.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Magic | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…8887backed Magic | 50c | 99.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Magic | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Nuggets | 49c | 85.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Nuggets | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Nuggets | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Magic | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Magic | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Nuggets | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Nuggets | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Nuggets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Magic | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…5cdcbacked Nuggets | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Magic | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)this page
- Magic vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.