NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a054be665549ff8052b52910c8ae89348631e7dec1ccc9f6659ed08eae11d1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 7,516$4,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,501.74 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 46c | 7,202$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 58c | 1,552$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.84 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Under | 48c | 1,406$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.88 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 1,396$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.22 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 47c | 1,233$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.51 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 48c | 1,131$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.66 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 824$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 57c | 568$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 44c | 540.98$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.95 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 404.22$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 42c | 297.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d8…d0f6backed Over | 55c | 71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ab…3258backed Over | 55c | 66.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Over | 56c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…1cddbacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…81f0backed Under | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Over | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 25.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…85d7backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked Over | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5this page
- Magic vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.