NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf785071f1b19ef2bdbe503da521476e3c7c4474bfc299045dd77b72cc3a363a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 55c | 11,362$6,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,109.33 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…4ad4backed Under | 52c | 9,615$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 50c | 7,484$3,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.88 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 49c | 4,089$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.48 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 3,792$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 3,460$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.2 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 53c | 3,042$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.74 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.1 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Under | 52c | 2,600$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.54 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 51c | 2,400$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…ad22backed Under | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…4521backed Under | 51c | 2,157$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 2,107$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.45 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.17 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba7…1bc2backed Under | 51c | 1,761$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Over | 50c | 1,278$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 997$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 50c | 916$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 52c | 639.91$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.16 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 621$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.08 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Under | 49c | 565.31$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Over | 50c | 530$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 480.27$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.33 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…dfc0backed Under | 57c | 473.69$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 43c | 404.46$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.54 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 340$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.8 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 42c | 270.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 49c | 182$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Under | 49c | 180$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 51c | 152.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 49c | 135.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 52c | 110.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Over | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 74.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…db14backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 56c | 35.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…85d7backed Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Over | 52c | 30.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 48c | 26.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Over | 51c | 26.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 50c | 25.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…32ddbacked Over | 53c | 25.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 48c | 21.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…ac2fbacked Over | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5this page
- Magic vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.