TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,479 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb9fc…da76backed Nuggets43c2,500$1,075 inWon+$1,42585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Magic57c1,704$971 inLost-$971.2816849.4%83 W · 85 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets42c1,703$723 inWon+$980.369,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic57c754$430 inLost-$429.786,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Magic57c579.44$329 inLost-$329.4951651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1db…ceb7backed Magic58c563.79$327 inLost-$327450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Nuggets43c535$230 inWon+$304.9566853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Magic59c338.98$200 inLost-$2009458.5%55 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Magic59c202.27$119 inLost-$119.2761747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Magic63c200$126 inLost-$12618556.8%105 W · 80 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets37c131$48 inWon+$82.538,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Magic57c100$57 inLost-$5762848.7%306 W · 322 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Magic15c100$15 inLost-$1517527.4%48 W · 127 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets43c53.5$23 inWon+$30.52,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Nuggets45c44.44$20 inWon+$24.4421756.7%123 W · 94 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.