NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13a17dcdcb20cd75a734ca8d7fea909ded86d19cc9cde6b3f45cb739ad806093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 53c | 31,467$16,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,917.95 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 10,080$4,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.99 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Under | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 51c | 4,053$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.14 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 53c | 4,009$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.38 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Under | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 44c | 2,934$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.96 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a10cbacked Under | 46c | 2,387$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,041$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 53c | 2,021$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.87 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…4521backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 1,299$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.58 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…ad22backed Under | 48c | 1,260$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 1,203$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.57 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…eda3backed Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 47c | 596$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.12 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Over | 55c | 419.43$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.83 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 44c | 181.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 124.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 53c | 43.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…b283backed Over | 52c | 39.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Over | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 55c | 36.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 53c | 28.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Over | 57c | 23.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5this page
- Magic vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.