Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1443654fab4cbb2d5cc3fde4f32e679ab5555e140e68718544090e7246f4896c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 960.31$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.49 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 833.21$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 25c | 719.05$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 606.93$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 459.36$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 269.62$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 5c | 241.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 239.75$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 80c | 209.14$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 19c | 205$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 205$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 200.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 191.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 25c | 188.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 131.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…0370backed Yes | 23c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 117.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 70c | 107.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 95.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 25c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 84.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 79.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 78.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 25c | 76.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 71.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 18c | 70.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 68.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 25c | 68.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 30c | 65.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 60.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 20c | 50.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…7cb3backed Yes | 31c | 48.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 44.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 43.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 40.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed No | 78c | 29.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 68c | 28.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 27.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 67c | 25.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 70c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.