Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e9193553d0b33b73b1a2e927b711cdd474482ad024158737f2197a14f4f9a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 1,927$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 1,185$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.21 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 73c | 997.72$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.97 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 847.46$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.86 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 822.98$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.39 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…1ddfbacked No | 47c | 520$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 62c | 372.13$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 362.67$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 300$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.89 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…8579backed Yes | 49c | 298.49$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 66c | 290.47$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 250.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 239.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 55c | 228.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 223.44$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 57c | 220$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 38c | 216.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 47c | 212.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 65c | 184.17$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 173.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 154.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…62b0backed Yes | 55c | 152.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 49c | 142.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 141.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 139.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 135$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 49c | 131$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 127.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 126$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 125.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 123.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 55c | 114.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 110.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 109.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 48c | 108.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 47c | 106.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 33c | 106.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 102.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 101.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 45c | 93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 90.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 88.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 78c | 86.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 57c | 80.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 65c | 75.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 74.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 73.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 70.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 46c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 44c | 67.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 59c | 67.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 68c | 66.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 29c | 66.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 62c | 64.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 56c | 60.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 53.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 43.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 74c | 41.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 40.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 54c | 39.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 38.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 37.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0a0dbacked Yes | 45c | 36.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 35.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 35.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 53c | 34.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 34.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 47c | 31.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 57c | 30.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 62c | 29.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 35c | 29.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…bb77backed Yes | 75c | 27.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.